Flow Returns in Ruaha at Park HQ but may dry again

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In the absence of sustained seasonal rains the Ruaha River at the Park HQ may dry again. Below the flow status on December 24, 2023 at the Msembe bridge is shown.

The Ruaha River with the Msembe Bridge in the center on December 24, 2023. Flow may dry again after its recovery on December 2nd, 2023. The width of the image is some 2.8km.

Flow Returns after estimated 46 Days at Park HQ

The remote rainfall data of local storms during the period November 30, 2023 and December 5, 2023 suggest return of flow on December 2nd, 2023. Compare the flow status of November 29, 2023 (Zero Flow) and December 5, 2023 (Flow) below. Added are the local rainfal data during the same period at Jongomero Camp (upstream of Ruaha HQ) and the Kapunga Area some 100km upstream (as the bird flies).

Zero Flow Downstream of Msembe Bridge November 29, 2023. (Click to Enlarge)
Flow has returned on December 4, 2023 at Msembe (Park HQ). (Click to enlarge)
Kapunga Scheme 100 km upstream. Rainfall days before return flow at Park HQ. (Click to Enlarge)
Jongomero Camp 45km upstream. Rainfall days before return flow. (Click to Enlarge)

Backward correction Zero Flow due to recent cloudiness

The availability of the October 30, 2023 image with a clear view of the msembe bridge (Park HQ) has resulted in the re-analysis of the October 2023 imagery and assessed October 17, as the zero flow date in the Ruaha River in 2023. All images below have gamma value 2 and the 15m pixel Landsat 8 image of October 17, 2023 has increased contrast.

2 days before Zero Flow at Park HQ Ruaha on November 5, 2018. (Click to enlarge)
Zero Flow August 21, 2022 Park HQ Ruaha. (Click to enlarge)
Assessed Zero Flow Landsat 8 (15m) Park HQ Ruaha. (Click to enlarge)

October 26, 2023 Zero Flow expected within days

The analysis of the 30m Landsat image of October 26, 2023 is not conclusive while it does not show the details of the resampled (5m) sentinel-2 image. On October 30, 2023 the higher resolution sentinel-2 will be available which can conclude on the zero flow at the Park HQ. The three images show the remote sensed flow status of the Ruaha River at the Park HQ (Msembe Bridge) respectively 2 days before zero flow (2018) at zero flow in 2022 and the current status from the Landsat LC08 image of October 26, 2023.

Two days before zero flow November 5, 2018. (Click to enkarge)
Zero Flow on August 21, 2022
Landsat 8 (30m) October 26, 2023. Near Zero Flow.

Zero Flow Park HQ expected end of November

The flow status at the Park HQ on October 15, 2023 is comparable with the flow status of July 12, 2022 and October 1, 2018. Zero flow was observed in those years almost 40 days later. (Click on image to enlarge)

Re-assessment flow at Park HQ in 2023

Comparison of the flow in the Ruaha in June and July 2023 with the high resolution image at the Msembe Bridge (Park HQ) reveals that the flow early July exceeded the amount in 2013. Which pushes the expected zero flow occurrence at the Park HQ beyond the first week of November 2023. The image slider shows the flow status (before) which compares to the high resolution image taken 4 days later on July 10, 2013. The second image is the flow status 10 years later. The comparison shows the higher water level in the pool upstream of the bridge in July 2023.

Flow_at_Msembe_Bridge_20130710 Flow_at_Msembe_Bridge_20230702

Flow status Great Ruaha at Park HQ June 2023

Since January the Ruaha is flowing under the Msembe Bridge at the Ruaha Park Headquarter. The Ruaha dried at end of first week of November in 2013 (high resolution image right) while the Ruaha had more water one month later than the current flow, according to the visible water level. The current flow at the Park HQ suggests an earlier date for zero flow in 2023 without interventions.