Last Updated 2 weeks ago

September 12, 2026 Alert 3 Confirmed

Nyaluhanga reached an advanced low-flow transition in mid-September 2026.
On 7 September, both fixed branch-inlet indicators (A16 and A17) were still WATER-classified. A16 changed to NO-WATER by 12 September while A17 remained WATER, marking the presently identified candidate ALERT 3 transition on 12 September. A17 subsequently changed to NO-WATER by 17 September, providing dry-side confirmation that the branch-waterline transition had progressed.

Over 14–17 September, the whole-A3 p50 diagnostic WATER area also declined from approximately 29,346 m² to 15,302 m², supporting the observed retreat.

ALERT 3 at Nyaluhanga refers to the critical low-flow/disconnection transition of the monitored branch; it does not mean that the main Great Ruaha River is completely dry. The present date is supported by the 2026 machine observations and independent physical validation, but the transferred classifier remains diagnostic while historical A3 validation is completed.

Date	AOI6 / A16	A16 p50 WATER probability	AOI7 / A17	A17 p50 WATER probability
7 Sep	WATER	0.5125	WATER	0.6868
12 Sep	NO-WATER	0.4960	WATER	0.7504
14 Sep	NO-WATER	0.3616	WATER	0.6985
17 Sep	NO-WATER	0.2746	NO-WATER	0.4979

On September 12, 2026 Alert 3 Imminent

ALERT 3 — Critical transition reached / confirmation pending.
Sentinel-2 observations indicate that by 12 September 2026 the water/no-water boundary had reached the critical ALERT 3 branch-inlet location. Joint-population analysis classifies A16 as NO-WATER while A17 remains WATER, consistent with the shoreline lying approximately across the critical detector pair. The next suitable satellite observation will determine whether the waterline has moved beyond the critical inlet and confirm ALERT 3.

Check Non-critical Waterline Current Flow Nyaluhanga August 28, 2026

The high resolution sub critical flow some 6 days after Alert 3 in 2023, has not yet been reached on August 28, 2026

Usangu Rice Drainage Flow on August 18, 2026

The similar pixel based waterline check suggests the flow at the Nyaluhangu river section virtual flow station, is not yet critical (Alert3).

For high resolution of the comparable river flow visit here. The current flow will be monitored and latest update is shown in images below.

The waterline related pixels indicate inside or outside the ruver channel indicate the reaching of Alert3 which according to unauthorative flow data is in the range of 8cumecs

A closer look at the water line (reference pixels) in August 18, 2026 shows the critical water line (Alert3) has not yet been reached by retreating water channel.