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Last Updated 4 days ago
A2 Satellite Indicator — Critical Low-Flow Update, 22 August 2026
Satellite observations show a continuing and rapid decline of the remaining wetted core at the A2 monitoring site, approximately 100+ km upstream of Msembe Bridge.
On 22 August, the two independently processed Sentinel-2 products showed only 22 TOA and 25 SR core points remaining on the fixed 255-point monitoring grid, with no points classified as open water. Based on the recent rate of decline, both products project the A2 core population to approach zero around 27 August 2026. This projection is provisional and will be updated following the next suitable satellite observation.
The historical comparison indicates that the present decline is consistent with the late stages of previous low-flow seasons. The 2024 series provides the clearer comparison. The 2025 record contains a seven-day observation gap precisely during the critical final decline, so it cannot provide a like-for-like estimate for the present 22–25-core state.
Operational interpretation: A2 provides an upstream early-warning indicator that can support timely abstraction-management decisions along the Ruaha and Mbarali Rivers. A projected zero-core condition at A2 does not mean that Zero Flow has occurred at Msembe Bridge. Msembe Zero Flow requires separate field confirmation.
The next update will incorporate new satellite observations as they become available.
SUSPECT Zero Flow Alert2 Ruaha River At Mtera
The 60% cloudiness image of Today (August 20, 2026) is a suspect computed (joint spectral population) zero flow image. The blueish coloring could relate to smoke from bush fire in the area and its impact on the calculated band 8, 4 and 3 false color values can result in prematurely recorded A2 zero flow. The upcoming sentinel-2 image and further investigation of the August 20 image solidify the zero flow detection.
On August 5, 2026 and estimated 1-2 weeks for Alert2
To investigate the interpretation of the 5m resampled Sentinel-2 SR image try to apply the example in second image to manipulate the interactive gee-map above.
